Ok, I've had enough of people asking Hillary to quit the race. I've had enough of pundits wondering how she can win it. I've had enough of her campaign moving the goal posts, hedging, dragging this primary out, and pretending like she can win in 2008. It is clear, Hillary Clinton will NOT be the democratic nominee for president in 2008. And she knows it.
Hillary Clinton (for all of the friendly and less friendly adjectives I could use to describe her) is not stupid. She can probably add and subtract even better than Chuck Todd (snark). She knows that Barack Obama will be the democratic nominee this year. And the reason she is not quitting has NOTHING to do with 2008. Explanation follows.
Last week, we all saw the now infamous poll that revealed 28% of Hillary supporters would vote for McCain over Barack Obama. This poll was the single most important poll to come out this primary season.
Prominent Democrats used this poll as a rallying cry to bring an end to this race "for the good of the party." They again mentioned the math involved in the delegate counts and pointed out that Clinton has (miniscule to) no chance of overtaking Obama in pledged delegates or popular vote totals...and therefore she would have to overturn the "will of the voters" in order to secure the nomination. Let me make this clear- Hillary Clinton has NO INTENTION of winning this nomination in 2008.
These prominent dems were right- Hillary is hurting Obama's chances of winning against McCain. What nobody is talking about (or what few realize) is that this poll, which cites 28% of her supporters not voting for Obama is EXACTLY the juice that Hillary was looking for to continue her current campaign. It is the single reason that she has now publicly vowed to press on.
You see, Hillary Clinton is no longer vying for a position on the 2008 presidential ticket. She and her campaign know that it is impossible to win the nomination this year. She knows that she is risking her family's political legacy by driving a wedge into the democratic party. But she also knows that voters have a short memory.
Starting March 4th, Hillary Clinton began to run for president in 2012. She knows that John McCain will be 75 years old in 2012. She is confident that he will be an old and relatively unpopular president at that time (for issues ranging from the extension of the Iraq war to economic woes). She believes that the damage her campaign has inflicted upon Obama will mean that his time has passed. At that time, she will paint herself as the classic "you should have nominated me in 2008" candidate. If you think her campaign has been unneccesarily lauditory towards McCain as of late, you're right... She needs him to win now, so that she can win later.
Don't be fooled. Hillary Clinton knows math. Unlike her supporters who think she can win this nomination, she is not naive, and she is not unsavvy to her chances of winning. In fact, she is surrounded by people who know she will not win in 2008. She is a career politician, and she embodies a long term vision that only true career politicians possess- she is always, always, thinking about ways to win. Hillary Clinton believes that she will be elected President of the United States in 2012.